08/25 2008, Monday

SigmaForex | Technical Analysis for Major Currencies


Technical Analysis for Major Currencies


EURO


Failing to build a solid base above the 1.49 level has resulted in the pair entering a critical situation where the 1.4670 is the pivot point on the medium term where a daily close below it will open the way to as low as 1.4445 whereas remaining above it will give the pair the chance to retest the 1.49 level and possibly the 1.50. Today we see that the pair rebounded from the 76.4% correctional level at 1.4700 where we expect it to incline in an attempt to build a solid base above 1.4740 and 1.4750. However, trading for today could be limited where buying and selling orders are somewhat equal where it will be directly reflected on the pair. The trading range for today might extend among the support level at 1.4675 and the resistance level at 1.5015 The general trend remains to the downside as far as 1.5830 remains intact with targets at 1.4870 and 1.4340
Support: 1.4710, 1.4700, 1.4670, 1.4610, 1.4520

Resistance: 1.4750, 1.4760, 1.4815, 1.4870, 1.4955


GBP


Breaching the 61.8% fibonacci correction for the long term wave at 1.8500 resulted in vigorous downside movements as the pair neglected being heavily oversold. From here we see the direction on the short term is now to the downside yet on an intraday basis, the pair will witness volatility as it continues to be oversold. The 1.8430 level is a critical level on the weekly charts, and this week it will be the pivot point. However we're back to say that trading below the 1.8500 - 1.8530 level will continue the bearish channel on the short term. The trading range for today might extend among the support level at 1.8325 and the resistance level at 1.8605 The general trend remains to the downside as far as 1.9485 remains intact with targets at 1.8070
Support: 1.8430, 1.8415, 1.8340, 1.8325, 1.8215

Resistance: 1.8485, 1.8500, 1.8530, 1.8605, 1.8650

08/25 2008, Monday

SigmaForex's Morning Report


Forex Exchange Morning Report

News And Views

A nearly $7 slide in NYMEX crude oil prices and a not entirely coincidental equity rally (DJIA +198pts) helped USD Index rise 0.8% from London into the NY close. The dollar was also boosted by a news report that Korea Development Bank was considering investment in Lehman Bros (some reports suggested buying the whole company). The S&P 500 Financials Index rose 3.1%. The dollar softened slightly on Fed chairman Bernanke's wary tone on the continuing 'financial storm'. The New Zealand dollar steadily lost ground vs USD, from 0.7180 in the London morning to close the week at 0.7088.
AUD/USD shed about a cent at the same time, finishing at 0.8665, not far off its lows. The 0.8650 area found buyers as it did on Thursday.
EUR/USD ratcheted down from 1.4869-80 to a 1.4758 low, finishing at 1.4793.
USD/JPY ground up from 109.00 to flicker above 110.00 in late NY.
US Fed chief Bernanke kicks off Jackson Hole symposium. In his address 'Reducing Systemic Risk' he described the past year as 'one of the most challenging economic and policy environments in memory'.

08/25 2008, Monday

SigmaForex | Daily Technical Analysis


Daily Technical Analysis


EURUSD Outlook


The EURUSD failed to maintain it's bullish correctional momentum on Friday. The pair bottomed at 1.4757 and closed at 1.4792 and the bullish channel on hourly and 4h chart was violated to the downside. The pair continued it's bearish momentum early today in Asian market, traded around 1.4735 at the time I wrote this comment. My model goes mixed with downside bias. Immediate support is seen at 1.4675. Initial resistance at 1.4795. CCI heading down towards -100 line on 4h chart.EURUSD Daily Supports and Resistances: S1= 1.4733 S2= 1.4674 S3= 1.4591 R1= 1.4875 R2= 1.4958 R3= 1.5017

GBPUSD Outlook


The Sterling slumped against Greenback on Friday. GBPUSD failed to continue the upside correctional move and violated the bullish channel on hourly and 4h chart. The pair bottomed at 1.8504 and closed at 1.8529. Early today in Asian market the pair is traded around 1.8440 at the time I wrote this comment. My model is mixed with downside bias. Immediate support is seen at 1.8380. Initial resistance at 1.8520. CCI about to cross -100 line down on daily chart suggesting a potential bearish view.

08/25 2008, Monday

SigmaForex | The Asian Session


Strong Dollar Moves In The Asian Session


Overall, the dollar posted some impressive gains even from the beginning of the session. The major currencies were sold lower in almost no time, on volumes that are above the average volumes recorded in the Asian session. The European calendar is light, having no important releases scheduled. There is a chance the market will range until the U.S, futures number start to move. Furthermore, traders should note that the London market will not be open today.


The Euro (Eur/Usd) was sold suddenly lower at the start of the Asian session. The pair plunged 70 pips, to TheLFB S1, soon after the market opened for trading. Last weeks, the euro closed for the first time on the green after it was sold lower for five 5 weeks in the row.


The Pound (Gbp/Usd) lost 110 pips, to TheLFB S1, almost immediately after the start of the Sunday session. At this moment, the pair is trading under the 1.85 level, for the first time in more than two years due to the market's expectation that the Bank of England will rather cut than raise the overnight rate.


The Aussie (Aud/Usd) declined 70 pips, near the first support level, following the market's unforeseen swing. The selling pressure had made the aussie test the 0.8610 area, which holds the pair from breaking lower for almost two weeks. Furthermore, the daily chart shows the aussie made some reversal patterns at this level.


The Cad (Usd/Cad) broke higher in the Asian session, touching TheLFB S2. Although the pair rarely moves in the overnight session, lately the cad pulled some breakouts during the Asian and European trading hours. Since the new session had started, the Canadian dollar gained 50 pips, broke a previous support line and now became a resistance.